← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 56% | 44% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Penafiel win | 19% | 34% | 5.00 | value: +69% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Penafiel | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1340.22 | 1440.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.32 | -23.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| league points | 15.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.45 | 1.09 |
| state index | -1.53 | -0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |