← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 51% | 44% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +24% |
| Belenenses win | 21% | 17% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1474.38 | 1477.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.26 | -10.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 37.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |