← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 53% | 31% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +22% |
| Maritimo win | 19% | 33% | 5.00 | value: +65% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1463.72 | 1509.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.41 | 29.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 38.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |