← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 39% | 36% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 25% | 2.87 | fair |
| Setubal win | 29% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1463.52 | 1511.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.15 | 4.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 45.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.55 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |