← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 36% | 66% | 2.50 | value: +66% ⚠ |
| Boavista win | 36% | 13% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1518.95 | 1672.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.93 | 31.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| league points | 49.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 2.36 |
| state index | -0.76 | 1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |