← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 49% | 74% | 1.85 | value: +38% ⚠ |
| Vitória SC win | 26% | 2% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 303.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1667.04 | 1465.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.44 | -5.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| league points | 75.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.34 | 1.06 |
| state index | 1.38 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |