← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 48% | 24% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +14% |
| Leiria win | 24% | 41% | 3.75 | value: +53% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1456.18 | 1489.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.44 | -0.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |