← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 35% | 2.20 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 32% | 19% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 46% | 3.30 | value: +52% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 942.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1513.03 | 1460.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.78 | 23.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 42.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |