← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 70% | 92% | 1.30 | value: +20% ⚠ |
| Draw | 19% | 4% | 5.00 | fair |
| Penafiel win | 11% | 4% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1480.46 | 1345.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.33 | -10.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| league points | 39.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.47 |
| state index | -0.26 | -1.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |