← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 69% | 67% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 30% | 4.50 | value: +34% |
| Setubal win | 11% | 3% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 303.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1604.29 | 1468.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.67 | -8.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 64.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.76 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |