← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 45% | 29% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 57% | 3.00 | value: +71% ⚠ |
| Academica win | 26% | 14% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1479.77 | 1461.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.57 | -13.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 38.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |