← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 41% | 30% | 2.20 | fair |
| Boavista win | 30% | 45% | 3.00 | value: +34% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1502.08 | 1527.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.82 | -22.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 48.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.53 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |