← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 70% | 66% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 26% | 5.00 | value: +31% |
| Naval win | 11% | 8% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1625.10 | 1450.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.25 | -12.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 65.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |