← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 44% | 23% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 44% | 3.25 | value: +43% ⚠ |
| Maritimo win | 28% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1479.49 | 1501.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.46 | 21.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 45.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |