← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 43% | 25% | 2.10 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 29% | 43% | 3.10 | value: +34% |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 935.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1461.76 | 1478.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.30 | 2.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 37.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |