← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 46% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 37% | 3.25 | value: +21% |
| CD Nacional win | 27% | 14% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1500.79 | 1605.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.21 | 36.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 47.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 2.03 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |