← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 73% | 91% | 1.28 | value: +16% ⚠ |
| Draw | 18% | 8% | 5.50 | fair |
| Penafiel win | 9% | 2% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Penafiel | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1348.87 | 1663.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.48 | 36.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.65 |
| league points | 15.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 2.32 |
| state index | -1.42 | 1.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |