← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 39% | 50% | 2.30 | value: +16% |
| CD Nacional win | 32% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 20% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1488.42 | 1514.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.50 | -24.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 36.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |