← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 47% | 78% | 1.95 | value: +52% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 15% | 3.25 | fair |
| Academica win | 25% | 7% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1459.35 | 1458.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.25 | -9.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 34.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |