← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 69% | 87% | 1.33 | value: +16% ⚠ |
| Draw | 20% | 11% | 4.50 | fair |
| Penafiel win | 10% | 1% | 10.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1516.67 | 1389.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.79 | -1.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| league points | 30.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| state index | -0.35 | -1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |