← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 51% | 20% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 61% | 3.40 | value: +106% ⚠ |
| Est Amadora win | 22% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1475.81 | 1627.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.45 | 15.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 37.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.13 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |