← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 38% | 49% | 2.37 | value: +17% |
| Boavista win | 33% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 16% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1543.62 | 1589.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.98 | 16.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| league points | 48.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |