← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 74% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +17% |
| Leiria win | 10% | 3% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 287.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1658.95 | 1495.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.89 | 8.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| league points | 69.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.33 |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |