← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 45% | 63% | 2.05 | value: +30% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 15% | 3.20 | fair |
| Setubal win | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1464.90 | 1493.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.27 | -5.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |