← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Mon, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 53% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +18% |
| Penafiel win | 20% | 15% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Penafiel | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1353.76 | 1547.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.34 | -34.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| league points | 14.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 1.62 |
| state index | -1.17 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |