← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 44% | 16% | 2.10 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 29% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 28% | 44% | 3.25 | value: +43% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 921.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1439.14 | 1522.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.36 | 14.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 31.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |