← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 42% | 21% | 2.20 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 31% | 55% | 3.00 | value: +64% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1441.50 | 1475.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.03 | 12.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |