← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 69% | 71% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 27% | 4.33 | value: +18% |
| Maritimo win | 11% | 2% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 282.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1594.53 | 1483.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.76 | -13.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 59.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |