← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 46% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 26% | 19% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1459.80 | 1470.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.57 | 27.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |