← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 77% | 82% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.00 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 7% | 4% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 275.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1640.85 | 1448.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.98 | -29.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| league points | 63.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.04 |
| state index | 1.19 | -0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |