← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 56% | 82% | 1.61 | value: +32% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 14% | 3.45 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 18% | 4% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1550.88 | 1480.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.69 | -9.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |