← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 48% | 22% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 42% | 3.30 | value: +39% |
| Vitória SC win | 25% | 36% | 3.75 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1531.24 | 1734.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.79 | 29.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 30.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.18 |
| state index | 0.32 | 1.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |