← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 49% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 37% | 3.30 | value: +23% |
| Belenenses win | 24% | 4% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1488.31 | 1585.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.95 | 30.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 34.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |