← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Fri, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 55% | 68% | 1.66 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 19% | 8% | 4.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 181.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1558.49 | 1506.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.41 | -48.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 51.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.57 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |