← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Mon, Mar 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 37% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +4% |
| Boavista win | 35% | 31% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1490.37 | 1550.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.34 | -15.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 35.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.67 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |