← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 47% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 25% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1477.14 | 1477.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.38 | 39.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |