← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 40% | 28% | 2.25 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 31% | 43% | 2.90 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 907.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1436.54 | 1476.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.38 | -5.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 28.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |