← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 57% | 67% | 1.57 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 16% | 3.60 | fair |
| Academica win | 17% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1475.37 | 1633.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.73 | 27.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.22 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |