← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 42% | 22% | 2.15 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 30% | 22% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 56% | 3.25 | value: +82% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1471.25 | 1497.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.14 | 29.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |