← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Fri, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 50% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.25 | value: +17% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 22% | 9% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1509.89 | 1456.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.86 | -15.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |