← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 51% | 83% | 1.85 | value: +54% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 9% | 3.50 | fair |
| Academica win | 23% | 8% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1533.51 | 1500.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.22 | -6.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 28.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.82 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |