← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 43% | 49% | 2.10 | value: +3% |
| Setubal win | 29% | 19% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1467.31 | 1485.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.87 | -15.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.50 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |