← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 74% | 75% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 21% | 5.50 | value: +17% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 9% | 4% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 260.00 | 899.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1626.68 | 1443.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.99 | -1.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| league points | 57.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.08 |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |