← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 57% | 75% | 1.57 | value: +18% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 17% | 4% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1572.22 | 1476.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.16 | -5.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |