← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Fri, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 38% | 66% | 2.50 | value: +66% ⚠ |
| CD Nacional win | 34% | 9% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1462.51 | 1525.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.36 | -47.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 28.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.65 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |