← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 38% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 34% | 11% | 2.65 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 48% | 3.20 | value: +55% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 893.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1444.40 | 1471.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.15 | 56.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.75 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |