← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 56% | 48% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 38% | 3.40 | value: +28% |
| Est Amadora win | 18% | 14% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1538.96 | 1453.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.31 | -26.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 43.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |