← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 71% | 64% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 31% | 5.00 | value: +54% |
| Naval win | 10% | 5% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 254.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1573.55 | 1457.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.08 | 23.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 49.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.08 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |