← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 48% | 36% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 52% | 3.25 | value: +69% ⚠ |
| Rio Ave FC win | 24% | 12% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1482.92 | 1462.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.30 | -20.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 30.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |