← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 55% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
| Setubal win | 18% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1498.58 | 1614.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.79 | 17.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 2.16 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |